Recommended bets of the week

Where should I place my bets?

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The odds bias model

How does our model work?

This website provides you with the tools to better understand gambling. The graph at the top of the page shows how the betting model we have developed has performed so far this season. The 'recommended bets' suggest how to place your money if you want to use our system. So how does it work? A lot of math can be boiled down to a model that, based on historical odds, earns money in the long run. We have compared three approaches to betting: Elo, Expected Goals and Odds biases, and found that the last of these appears to earn money. The odds bias model utilizes the differences between odds set by bookmakers and results. On the right we plot how the odds difference between the odds of a home win and an away win determine how much of your portfolio you should bet. This is not exactly the model applied to our betting recommendations, but it gives a good idea of the strategy to adopt. Bet on strong favourites and draws in even matches, and if history is anything to go by, you will make money.

Home win odds - Away win odds