Do you have any question about our model? Well, you are on the right page. If you cannot find your answer on this page, you might find it in Strategies or by asking us by e-mail or Twitter.
Why do you bet on the underdog?
If the win chance, estimated by our model, is better than the given odds we bet on it. Imagine 100 underdog games where the underdogs have a 10% chance to win but are given the odds as if it would be a 5% chance, 20 times the money. If we bet 10 Pounds on each game we would lose 100*10 = 1000 pounds. However the 10 wins would generate 20*10*10 = 2000 pounds. Thus a 1000 pound net gain in the long run. However this is an example and in reality the difference isn’t that big, but this is the basic idea.
Why does the recommendations change team sometimes?
Our algorithm does not try to predict the outcome, it tries to find the odds that are the most profitable. Sometimes both a bet on the home team and away team can be profitable, in which case the one with the highest expected net gain is recommended.
In these cases, the algorithm may jump between the two teams when there are small changes in the odds.
When should I bet?
The profit graph on the front page is for the recommendations from the day before each match, at 17:00 GMT. However, we update the table at 8:00 and 17:00 each day to give you the most current odds.